Robin Garr wrote:Bob Henrick wrote:My point is that at 72 years of age and given the life span of an American male is 75 years and 2 months,
You might have a few more years left than that, Bob!
That's the average life span of an American infant at birth. At 72, you've got an average expectation of 12 more years to enjoy your wine.
Try this calculator - pull the bar at the upper left over to your current age to come up with the details:
All that said, I expect that over-indulgence in wine or food could put a finger on the scales as far as mortality (and more important, overall health) is concerned; and of course, none of us know the day or the hour that we'll pass on - we might win or lose against the averages. But if you're trying to play the odds, at your age you're looking at 12 more years, not just 3 more years.
Another, perhaps taboo, factor in life expectation is socioeconomic category http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/35/4/969.full . There have been similar studies and conclusions in the UK and probably elsewhere. I guess that most people on this and similar boards fall into the more privileged category with longer life expectation. Mostly healthier life styles of the more privileged as well as access to better medical care help to explain these disparities.
This brings me back to the Public Health ayatollahs. They most probably feel that there has to be one life style message to fit all sizes and that means a simple message which tends blanket demonization of smoking (rightly there IMO) as well as of alcohol, animal fats and sugar where the truth is much more subtle. An additional background factor in the demonization of alcohol is the short term ugly side of excess such drunken brawling, road accidents and broken families, but that is no reason IMO to exaggerate the longer term health problems.