Wine as economic indicator? (includes poll)

[Robin Garr]

Do fine wine sales trends serve as an early indicator of coming economic times?

Sales of "mid-level" wines - those priced at $30 to $70 per bottle at retail - may offer a better economic barometer than either high-end trophy wines or mass-market bottles,according to Master Sommelier Alexander LaPratt.

“The middle wines are where you see the impacts of recession," LaPratt told Forbes.com contributor Joe Harpaz, who quoted the sommelier in his Sept. 10 Forbes.com report, "Wine As Economic Indicator: Do Sales Of $50 Pinots And Merlots Predict Our Economy's Future?"

"At the high end, where people are spending $100 or more for a bottle of wine, that kind of spending is pretty much recession-proof and influenced by other factors like vintage and seasonality," said LaPratt, who is sommelier at Atrium DUMBO restaurant in Brooklyn.

"But the $30-$70 range can be hit pretty hard by changes in disposable income. That’s where we really see the most economic sensitivity in wines," LaPratt said, adding that sales of "ultra-high-end" wines that sell for $100 a bottle or more seem relatively "recession-proof."

I've always been struck by a sad economic indicator at the other end of the price ladder, which suggests that the sales of cheap alcohol go up during hard times, hinting at the unhappy reality of alcohol as anodyne for hardscrabble depression. But that's another story for another day.

As for me, even in good times I have a hard time justifying a $70 bottle, and even a $30 wine-shop price tag strikes me as a splurge reserved for a special occasion. Add a few bucks more when you're dealing with the restaurant wine-list markup, but still.

How about you? Just for fun, I've set up an online poll (above), hoping to take a casual snapshot of wine lovers' behavior when it comes to wine and hard times. Please take a moment to click any that apply, and we'll see how our community shapes up.

Less and cheaper. I think its a trailing indicator not a leading indicator.

I'm still getting over the $30-70 as midrange. Cellartracker says I have 5% of my purchases in that level (only 0.5% above), and I feel like I spend a lot on wine.

To answer the question, I would buy cheaper wine if the situation arose but have been fortunate not to be in that situation for any extended period.

I didn't find this a very easy poll to get to, took me about 4 try's to get there.

I had to vote "Other". I buy more grapes.

According to some friends in the wine business here in Florida wine is a definite economic indicator, but either a real time or a slightly trailing one. At the height of the economic downturn, which hit Florida hard, it was difficult to sell a $20 wine. People went to the $10 and under categories where it's hard to make a buck if you're in the industry. As things have improved somewhat, (perhaps more than in other parts of the country), the sweet spot of wine purchases here seem to be in the $15 to $20 range. It's still very hard to get many people to part with $30 or more.

[Robin Garr]

... the sweet spot of wine purchases here seem to be in the $15 to $20 range. It's still very hard to get many people to part with $30 or more.

Thanks for all the insights, Ken. Funny, in the quoted portion you just described me!