Thoughts re winebuying in a recession

So a variety of recent threads, events, discussions both live and electronic, etc.- all about various aspects of wine buying -have been bouncing around in my head. So I thought I'd start a thread with a few thoughts. Feel free to blast my opinions, or add new subsubjects. I think of myself as a reasonably savvy shopper, but you might disagree with a lot of my thoughts!

1) Prearrival and the economy.
I saw on another forum that a friend (who also posts here) was out a bunch of wine that she had paid for and was on the floor at Carolina Wine Company, but with the bankruptcy she's considered an unsecured creditor, so even if sales order is taped to the box, it's not hers!!!! We've previously discussed the dangers of prearrival if the store folds, but in this case the wines were in the store. Wow. Obviously we can't do D&B reports (and they wouldn't show that much) on every wine store we do business with. But this reinforces a few things that I was already thinking:
* In the current economy, think long and hard re prearrival wines. Is it really necessary? If so, only deal prearrival with established stores with good track records, a strong b&m presence, etc. Even then, never put more into prearrivals with one entity than you can afford to lose (even if painfully).
* Always ALWAYS pay by credit card if you aren't picking up. It's your best recourse, though they may well deny claims that are old enough.
*Once weather permits, take delivery. Free storage isn't free storage if you never get the wine.

2) "Sale" prices
With the economy, there has been some dumping, fire sales, and simply good deals. But that of course doesn't mean that every offer is a good deal. First of all, if it's not a wine/style you like, obviously not a good deal for you!
"Originally priced at" doesn't mean that it was a reasonable price, or that it was the price that most stores sold it at. Some stores price high, so a 25% off sale might not be better than other stores' regular price. If you want to see if something is a good deal, it's good to check vs Winesearcher, and maybe against community values on Cellartracker or auction prices of older wine. I love some of the circumlocutions that retailers use. "Best price on winesearcher on the east coast" , " the 2001 of this goes for $XX" (for a 2002 Rhone), "WS calls this a best value" (well, yeah, but that was at $45, and you're charging $95!). Caveat emptor.

3) Condition
No deal is good if the wine is not in good shape. Period.

[David M. Bueker]

All points spot on Dale.

Pre-arrival is essentially dead to me if I have to lay down the cost of the wines for a significant length of time. It's not just the merchant, but also the whole value chain that can cause problems. Sure if the wine never shows up a good merchant will take care of you by at least refunding your money, but it never really fixes the issue of not getting a wine you wanted in the first place.

More and more wines are being moved from place to place, exposing them to additional provenance concerns. I stopped buying from a well known gray market shop because I received two consecutive shipments of cooked wines, and they have a caveat emptor policy.It's no longer just the 1st growths and grand cru Burgs that are treated this way.

Great points, Dale. The only thing I would add is that any wine firm no matter how old, how well established, held in the best regard or looks like they are doing well can go out of business tomorrow in this economy. I have witnessed that happen locally.

I do not have money to lose, so I will pass on pre-arrivals for now. Maybe even forever.

I still do some limited PA. While any store could be at risk, I think there are certain things that make some stores more vulnerable. I try to limit my risk now by sticking with stores that have a pretty long and steady record for timely delivery. Stores that take extra long time may or may not be sourcing after the fact, but best not to get caught in a Ponzi scheme. Similarly, a store with a solid B&M presence and a fairly diverse line is less likely IMHO to be exposing itself to market forces that could squeeze it than a phone bank operation"brokerage" with more eggs in one basket.

Why do PA? Most of it is price, for short term waits. I don't worry too much if Zachys, CSW, Grapes/Posner has something coming in couple months. They've always been dependable, and even under worst case scenario I'm covered by CC. It's the multi-year waits that really put you at risk. Also sometimes these are very hard to find wines, and PA is the way to ensure them.

As to provenance, most of the stuff I might buy that is older is non-trophy stuff that is much more likely to have sat in one geeky cellar for a long time. 71 Canon, 93 Savigny 1ers, 83 Rausan Segla, '94 Zillikens etc don't have a lot of trading going on. Contrast that with a 82 Bordeaux 1st that might have sold 5X.

I'm with Dale on all points, particularly pre-arrival. I've occasionally purchased the odd bottle on PA, but for those I strictly deal with stores like Crush that I'm very familiar with, have a good history buying from and know they'll have the wine within the next few months with a guaranteed arrival date.

Re. sale prices, I've become fairly cynical towards those after living in Singapore through a number of the annual "Great Singapore Sales" (yes, actual national events promoting tourism through shopping sales) and seeing prices that may be 50% off but still don't make much sense. At the end of it a Rebholz GG at 30% off at $77 is still a bloody pricey wine. That said there have been some pretty nice deals (Knoll Smaragds at $35 and '98 Rayas Fonsalette CDR at $30) that I've bit on recently.

Condition - agree fully, I'm very picky in terms of provenance. Any sign of serious leakage with low fills (as opposed to the occasional German overfilled wines) or raised corks and I'll pass. I just cancelled an order from a well known west coast retailer after finding that out about some questionable storage - decided I'd rather pay a $10 cancellation fee than spend a bit more than that drinking cooked wines. That said the point you make about buying the less-desired wines and generally finding better storage is a great one - I've generally bought those sorts of less-sought after or off-vintage things ('94 Pichon-B, '85 Cantemerle or less-chased/lower scoring Aussie vintages like '97 and '99) from places like HDH/Flickinger where I buy older wines, and have had very good luck with those, which probably weren't traded heavily.

Speaking of '94 Zilliken btw, did you see Crush's offer on the '94 and '93 Auction Spats from that house?

No, not on Crush's list, there prices are so high that at their progressive sale I looked once on the 30% off sale and found no bargains! Though I know others have gotten lots of good buys there.

I pretty much ignore anything with any signs of seepage, other than maybe some Rieslings. Fills have to be judged by age, HS is probably fine for a 70 Bordeaux, not good for a 90.

Of course, one side effect of the economy is that it's easy to not do prearrival, with so many bargains as retailers and distributors have to move inventory. Nice cool day in NY, just took delivery of:
'63 Warres @ $97
06 Weinbach Laurence PG @ 18
06 Weinbach Theo Gwz @18
06 Gouge Perriere blanc @ 18
06 Girardin Meursault Perrieres @ 30
missed out on some even better prices on Weinbach Rieslings, plus didn't get any Gouges red or other white Burgs. And usually I delete Pops emails without reading!

Yeah, the progressive sale wasn't one for bargains (I still bit on an '02 Knoll Loibenberg - reckoned at $38 it wasn't a bad buy, and the wine itself was stunning). But I've gotten some great buys from there otherwise - mostly in terms of Germans/Austrians though from the main inventory, not seen as many deals in the Burgs/Bdx selection.

If you don't mind me asking - where did you find the old Bdx/Burgs though? I've been on the lookout for some older reds but haven't seen too many decent deals at HDH or Flickinger (my usual older-red sources).

Great prices on the Weinbachs btw!

If you don't mind me asking - where did you find the old Bdx/Burgs though? I've been on the lookout for some older reds but haven't seen too many decent deals at HDH or Flickinger (my usual older-red sources).

Yeah, it was the Burgs at Crush that needed a 50% sale to be attractive.

I've gotten older Bdx and Burgs from variety of sources -some private sellers some auction, some retail. Retail I've gotten from Grapes, CSW, Zachys, Post, HDH. Of the places that buy cellars, I used to buy from Benchmark, but since Stefan left there prices are mostly hilarious. Ben at Cellaraiders can be good. I buy at auction from Zachys and HDH, often splitting lots with friends. I've also had good luck with Winebid for the "bottles that aren't 'auction-quality' but someone is likely geeky if they held these" -things like the 71 Canon ($20 plus vig), 79 du Tertre ($35+), etc. I'd probably prefer to pay a bit more at a retailer for a "serious" bottle than chance WB since you don't know provenance, but my track record buying this kind of wine is pretty good. By the way, with bottles like these, I personally regard label issues dampness as a real positive.

As to provenance, most of the stuff I might buy that is older is non-trophy stuff that is much more likely to have sat in one geeky cellar for a long time. 71 Canon, 93 Savigny 1ers, 83 Rausan Segla, '94 Zillikens etc don't have a lot of trading going on. Contrast that with a 82 Bordeaux 1st that might have sold 5X.

I think that is generally a good strategy although it helps to be able to see the wines first. I have seen some pretty funky looking early 90s bottles of Zilliken (to take one example) sitting in retail shops.

I think that is generally a good strategy although it helps to be able to see the wines first. I have seen some pretty funky looking early 90s bottles of Zilliken (to take one example) sitting in retail shops.

True, but pretty much all of the retail shops I go to are great about giving a good description if you ask. And Winebid usually has pictures and detailed descriptions (though color can be harder to judge from pix)

[David M. Bueker]

One of the things about re-releases of wines from an estate is that they do not always clearly identify late releases. In the case of the late-release Zillikens there wasn't anything obvious (at least on the two bottles I ended up with).

Re. Zillikens/other Germans: Wouldn't the AP number be an indication of that?

I recollect having a '94 Prum Auslese a couple of times with an AP ending in 0106 (which I figured meant submission/bottling/release in 06) - assumed other producers' late releases would be similarly identifiable.

[David M. Bueker]

Re. Zillikens/other Germans: Wouldn't the AP number be an indication of that?

I recollect having a '94 Prum Auslese a couple of times with an AP ending in 0106 (which I figured meant submission/bottling/release in 06) - assumed other producers' late releases would be similarly identifiable.

Sometimes, but not if the producer bottled the whole batch and just held back some bottles.

True, but pretty much all of the retail shops I go to are great about giving a good description if you ask. And Winebid usually has pictures and detailed descriptions (though color can be harder to judge from pix)

Sounds like you have some good shops.

Speaking as a retailer here.......

There are all kinds of ways of attracting people's atention. Those of you who speak about the bottom line are entirely correct. It doesn't matter what the percentage of discount is etc. etc. what's the final cost....period!

As for wine searcher. BEWARE! Many and I do mean MANY stores post prices on Wine Searcher for wines they do not have in stock! I had a customer call me yesterday enquiring about a wine they saw listed in our name on Wine Searcher. How in tarnation did that happen when we have NEVER initiated a listing on Wine Searcher? Anybody have any idea?

Finally, as per pre-arrivals, or pre-sells or anything one wants to call it. For the most part this is a "cash flow" practice by retailers who are only immitating the wholesalers they/we buy from. The only legitimate reason for a consumer to buy a pre arrival is availability. If the quantity is limited from the advertising source and other sources either don't have it or don't have much then one should consider buying it or losing the chance. A wholesaler called me a few weeks ago, he was selling off a wine because he was mad at the winery. Price was more thn half off, delivery in two weeks. We sent out an email, sold it all in one day at a good price and received the wine two weeks later on schedule. Talk about recession buying........there are deals galore out there right now this is a buyers market. Have fun!

Peter

Peter, the wines listed by "Wine-Searcher are limited as you say, but their "Wine-Searcher Pro" version, which I pay thirty bucks a year to subscribe to, apparently lists as many stores and wines as they care to. Others on the board no doubt know more than I do about their data collection methods.

[David M. Bueker]

Dale - if you liked Benchmark then I highly recommend Blicker-Pierce, which is where Stefan ended up. I've bought from them a few times now with nothing but great results. I just picked up a mixed case of 2004/2005 Zind-Humbrecht Gewurztraminer (the only grape I really like from ZH) Grand Crus with most being under $20.